Visualize the Play

Sometimes you can find the right bid by visualizing the upcoming play. It got us a top on this deal.

Playing pairs at favorable vulnerability, I pick up a big hand:

AK8 / KQ762 / A3 / K93

My LHO is the dealer and he passes, following which I see my partner reach into the bidding box. Goodness! I've got 19 high-card points plus some distribution, so if he has an opening bid we probably have a slam. Somewhat disappointingly, however, he pre-empts with 3. My RHO passes.

Now what? My first thought is 3NT, which should be pretty safe, although if partner doesn't have the A we could be in trouble on a diamond lead.

But should I give up on slam? Let's visualize the play. This partner wouldn't open 3 without a seven-card club suit. Assuming he's got the A, we have seven likely club tricks (even if he's missing the Q), the AK, the A, and an easily establishable heart for 11 tricks. Plus, won't partner be able to establish another heart? Even if my LHO has the A, my partner can probably establish a second heart trick. I've got at least 4 entries for him, and he's got abundant clubs, so he should be able to ruff out the hearts.

That looks good. The only danger I can see is if the opening lead is a diamond and that creates an immediate diamond loser before partner can establish the hearts. That's a risk, but a diamond lead is also a risk in 3NT. I think it's a risk worth taking. Another risk is that partner has three low hearts. Not impossible, but the odds are against it given his opening bid.

Now what if partner doesn't have the A? Well, if he has the A instead things look even better. He'll surely have the Q (I don't think he'd open 3 missing the AKQ), so we have 6 probable club tricks, 3 hearts, 2 spades, and a diamond for twelve tricks without even having to establish anything in the side suits. There's the same risk of a diamond lead, but it's reduced by the possibility that partner could throw off a losing diamond on a heart before drawing trump.

So I think all I need is for partner to have one Ace. Does that mean Blackwood is safe? One has to be careful when clubs are going to be trump. But it's OK. With this partner I play regular Blackwood, so if he bids 5 to show no Aces I can just pass, and if he shows one Ace with 5 we should be good for a club slam whether the Ace is in clubs or hearts. And if he happens to have two Aces, I can bid the grand! True, if he has no Aces we could get a bad score because the field might outscore us in 3NT. But again, it seems worth the risk.

Finally, one more (somewhat tongue-in-cheek) detail: the cards have been running strongly in our direction tonight. It's like the hand generator got stuck. We've missed two slams already by not bidding enough. I don't want to miss another one.

So after a long pause for thought I bid 4NT. Partner bids 5 and I go to 6, which ends the auction.

I await the opening lead with great anticipation. I have to explain 5 several times, as my RHO can't believe anyone still plays regular Blackwood. He thinks I mean regular keycard Blackwood, that is, 0314 as opposed to 1430. But no, I tell him more than once, 5 shows one Ace, not 1 or 4 keycards.

Finally he comes out with the best possible lead for our side, the A. I put down:

	A K 8 K Q 7 6 2 A 3 K 9 3

W	N	E	S
		P	3
P	4NT	P	5
P	6	AP

Excellent. Partner's Ace must be the A, so we probably have seven clubs, two spades, two now-established hearts, and a diamond. The only risks I can see are 3-0 trumps and a ruff at trick two. And even with 3-0 trumps my partner might guess the Queen.

West studies the dummy at length and then evidently decides that his only hope is for a ruff. He leads another heart, but when partner calls for the King, East follows. Now partner leads a club to his Ace and West drops the Queen. It's all over. Partner draws the last trump and claims.

And we get a cold top! I didn't think I'd done anything all that clever, but of the 18 tables that played this board, 14 of them were in 3NT by North, almost all making 5 (one made 6). Two pairs were in 5 by South (one making 5, one 6), and one was in 3 by North, down 1 for a bottom. No one else found the club slam, so we beat everybody. A victory for visualizing the play!

The full deal:

	A K 8 K Q 7 6 2 A 3 K 9 3
9 7 6 4 A J 8 5 4 J 9 5 Q		10 5 3 2 10 3 K Q 10 8 4 6 5
	Q J 9 7 6 2 A J 10 8 7 4 2

P.S.: West said afterwards that he should have led a diamond, but that once he led a heart, it was too late for that and his only hope was a heart ruff at trick two. But as it turns out, even a diamond lead wouldn't have beaten the slam, as my partner could win the A, draw trump, and discard his heart loser on a spade. Then he concedes a diamond and ruffs his last diamond. So slam was cold on any lead.

[WBL Unit Game, A/X division, 3-30-2017]